Fredrik Schiller is a former Swedish Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina and to Eritrea. He is an economist and advisor primarily on wider European affairs, the Horn of Africa and international organisations. He has served at the United Nations, in the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). He is a conflict specialist with solid experience of operational crisis management and recovery and is strongly committed to innovative solutions to geostrategic challenges and to smart and sustainable entrepreneurship.
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On 21 December 2024 Donald Trump stated that he did not rule out US military action to take control of Greenland, something that he had spoken about during his first presidential term. Now he emphasised publicly that American ownership and control of this frozen island four times as large as Texas were absolute necessities. Other pressing presidential matters may since have diverted his attention from Greenland; however, it very much remains a serious concern both for the almost 57,000 inhabitants of Greenland - and for Denmark, of which it is a part and which controls its external affairs and funds it.
Despite its vast reserves of precious minerals, some of which are important for energy transition, such as lithium and uranium, mining there has so far not lived up to its potential. Greenland’s authorities have been reluctant to issue mining licenses and the few mining projects to date have been unprofitable. But given its strategic location, Greenland plays a key role in the geopolitics of the North. It lies next to two key trans-Arctic waterways, the Northwest Passage and the North Polar route from Europe to the Bering Strait into the North Pacific. The melting of Polar ice has greatly increased its importance for shipping.
US-Danish relations concerning Greenland date back to the 18th century, but were formally established in 1951 by a bilateral treaty. This affirmed Danish sovereignty over Greenland, but granted the US the right to a military presence on the island at its discretion so the US established 13 military bases there. The Thule Air Base, now renamed the Pituffik Space Station in the north, was of great importance to Washington since it provided the shortest missile route to the then Soviet Union. However, new technology has since reduced Greenland’s military importance and US interest is now primarily economic. This is what preoccupied Mr Trump already during his first presidential term and which now has come back to haunt both Danes and Greenlanders. A forceful US military action to seize Greenland would in practical terms be easy for the US to do, but would mean taking territory belonging to Denmark, another founding NATO ally.
Copenhagen and Greenland officials quickly made it very clear that Greenland was not for sale. Instead, the present Prime Minister of Greenland, Múte B. Egede, in his New Year’s speech, underlined that Greenland would (soon) seek independence from Denmark and would build its economy on tourism and mining to reduce its reliance on Danish state subsidies. However, sceptics argue that the island lacks the capital, resources and labour to independently sustain its economy.
Be that as it may, Washington has long made it clear that “the US is not leaving”. One reason given for this is to counter growing Chinese and Russian interests and influence in the Arctic. Beijing describes China as “a near Arctic” nation that has a permanent observer seat in the Arctic Council since 2013.
Denmark has been criticised for a policy of “Danisation” aimed at bringing Greenlanders closer to European living standards by rather questionable methods. Tensions arose when it was discovered that Danish doctors in the 1960s and 1970s clandestinely had administered permanent contraceptives to local teenage girls. Over time Greenlanders started to carve out their own path to future independence.
In 2023 Greenland’s assembly in the small capital, Nuuk, signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the EU for a strategic partnership to jointly develop sustainable raw material value chains. In 2024 the EU opened its first Arctic office in Nuuk and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen committed the Union to helping Greenland to develop the island’s large potential in sustainable energy and minerals. That was just before Trump’s declaration that he wanted the US to buy Greenland - and his son’s visit there for lunch and a photo opportunity with some young men wearing MAGA caps.
The bellicose directness of Trump’s “claim” over Greenland stunned not just the Greenlanders and the Danes, but also the other four Nordics and most Europeans; this at a time when the five Nordic-Baltic NATO member states work more closely together than ever owing to the war in Ukraine. Nordic prime ministers immediately met for dinner in Copenhagen for an initial confidential brainstorming. More consultations have followed, including with Brussels, even if consciously kept rather quiet. The Danish PM will assume the rotating chairmanship of the EU Council of Ministers for the second half of 2025, so will then have an additional platform for projecting Danish national interests with EU support.
Nordic countries are now also launching a joint effort to assess raw materials in Greenland and in the surrounding region. A report on the findings is to be prepared and published this year. It will reassess Nordic potential regarding strategic materials with a focus on security aspects, including defence technology needs - so a timely project.
On 4 February the Nuuk parliament, in a response to Trump’s threats, adopted a law prohibiting foreign political donations to protect “Greenland’s political integrity”. This was described as "basically a preventive measure”, with PM Egede repeating that Greenland was not for sale. He also called for unity at “a time like we have never experienced before in our country” A January survey showed that 85% of Greenlanders do not want to become part of the US.
Due to the US pressure Egede called for early parliamentary elections - which he lost on 11 March. This to two opposition parties, the liberal Demokraatit Party (29.9%) and the Naleraq Party (24.5%) which are now working on forming a government. The likely new PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen, 33, has stated that “We don’t want to be Americans…we don’t want to be Danes. We want to be Greenlanders and we want our own independence in the future. And we want to build our own country by ourselves.” Mid-March both the outgoing and the incoming prime ministers joined large demonstrations in Greenland, said to be the largest ever on the island, against foreign intervention in Greenland’s affairs. All five party leaders, supported by PM Frederiksen, publicly stated that Trump’s proposals were unacceptable.
Thus, any future US takeover of Greenland would be met by wide European opposition and pushback. It would be in clear contravention of the 1949 Washington Treaty by one of the drafting states of the Atlantic Charter. Denmark has also been one of the most loyal allies of the US, including in joint military actions abroad, losing troops both in Iraq and in Afghanistan, where 43 Danish soldiers died and more than 200 were injured. No wonder that the Danes are feeling rather bitter about Trump’s recent bellicosity!
A longer version of this article was published at https://www.linkedin.com/company/mundus-international/posts/?feedView=all
